Up 80% This Year, Sell Intel Stock Ahead Of Earnings?

Core Insights - Intel is expected to report earnings on October 23, 2025, with projected earnings around break-even at $0.01 per share and a revenue decline of 1.5% to $13.1 billion, primarily due to market share losses to AMD and a shift from CPUs to GPUs in the AI era [2] - The company's stock has surged 80% year-to-date, driven by investments from the U.S. government and Nvidia, but historically, it performs poorly post-earnings announcements, with only 25% of instances showing positive returns one day after earnings [3][4] - Intel's market capitalization stands at $165 billion, with a revenue of $53 billion over the past twelve months, but it reported an operational loss of $4.4 billion [4] Earnings Performance Analysis - Historical data shows that in the last five years, Intel has had 20 earnings data points, resulting in 5 positive and 15 negative one-day returns, indicating a 25% chance of positive returns [7] - The median of the 5 positive returns is 7.8%, while the median of the 15 negative returns is -7.0%, suggesting a significant disparity in post-earnings performance [7] - Analyzing the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns can provide insights for trading strategies, particularly if a trader identifies a strong correlation between 1D and 5D returns [8] Market Context - The ongoing challenges in Intel's CPU segment are exacerbated by competition from AMD and a broader market transition towards GPUs, impacting overall performance [2] - The upcoming Panther Lake laptop chip, produced using the new 18A process technology, is a focal point for Intel's foundry business and may influence future performance [2] - The performance of peer companies can also affect Intel's stock reaction post-earnings, with price adjustments potentially occurring before the earnings announcement [9]