法国总理勒科尔尼挺过不信任动议，避免政府再次垮台，市场暂获喘息

Core Points - French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu survived two no-confidence motions, temporarily easing the ongoing political crisis and avoiding early elections [1] - Lecornu announced a suspension of a controversial pension law to gain crucial support from Socialist Party members, which is a significant concession for President Macron [4] - The suspension of the pension law is projected to result in a fiscal loss of €400 million (approximately $465 million) in 2024 and €1.8 billion by 2027 [4] Group 1: Political Developments - The first no-confidence motion received 271 votes, falling short of the 289 needed to force Lecornu's resignation, while the second motion garnered only 144 votes [1] - The political crisis is not over, as the suspension of the pension law represents a political blow to President Macron, who had positioned this reform as a cornerstone of his pro-business economic policy [3] - The Socialist Party has warned that their support does not equate to a blank check for Lecornu, indicating uncertainty in upcoming budget negotiations [3][5] Group 2: Budget Negotiations - Lecornu has stated he will not invoke Article 49.3 of the constitution to bypass voting procedures, giving parliamentarians greater control over legislation [5] - The Socialist Party has begun opposing spending cuts, including freezes on welfare and pension payments, indicating potential challenges in budget negotiations [5] - The Speaker of the National Assembly noted that the passage of the no-confidence vote allows for budget negotiations to commence, emphasizing a need for compromise and dialogue [6] Group 3: Market Reactions - Investors reacted positively to the outcome, with the French CAC 40 index rising by 0.8%, outperforming its European counterparts [1] - The spread between French and German 10-year government bond yields stabilized at 78 basis points, down from over 89 basis points the previous week, reflecting reduced borrowing costs for France [1]