Why NVIDIA Stock Rose 80% In 6 Months?

Core Insights - NVIDIA's stock experienced a 77.2% change from April 18, 2025, to October 15, 2025, primarily driven by a 48.4% change in the company's P/E multiple [1] - The company reported a robust Q1 Fiscal 2026 revenue of $44.1 billion, a 69% year-over-year increase, but faced challenges due to new U.S. government export license requirements impacting its revenue from China [5] - The Data Center segment was a significant growth driver, contributing $39.1 billion to Q1 revenue, reflecting a 73% year-over-year increase [5] - NVIDIA announced a strong Q2 Fiscal 2026 revenue of $46.7 billion, a 56% year-over-year increase, alongside a $60 billion share repurchase authorization [5] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly U.S.-China trade issues, have negatively impacted NVIDIA's stock due to its substantial revenue exposure to the Chinese market for AI chips [5] - Analysts maintain positive ratings for NVIDIA, emphasizing its leadership in AI infrastructure and the expanding total addressable market for its GPUs [5] Financial Performance - Q1 Fiscal 2026 revenue was $44.1 billion, a 69% increase year-over-year, with a significant charge of $4.5 billion for excess inventory due to export restrictions [5] - Q2 Fiscal 2026 revenue reached $46.7 billion, marking a 56% year-over-year increase, despite a slight decline in Data Center revenue [5] - The company has a new $60 billion share repurchase authorization, indicating strong financial health and commitment to returning capital to shareholders [5] Market Dynamics - The introduction of new U.S. export license requirements for H20 products to China led to projected losses of $8 billion in Q2 revenue [5] - Escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, including potential new tariffs, have created investor uncertainty and negatively affected stock performance [5] - NVIDIA's significant revenue exposure to the Chinese market for AI chips makes it particularly vulnerable to geopolitical events [5]