“存款搬家”进程暂缓？

Core Insights - The process of "deposit migration" has shown signs of slowing down, with significant divergence in deposit structures observed in September, where household deposits increased while non-bank financial institution deposits decreased [2][3] Deposit Structure Changes - In September, household deposits increased by 2.96 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 760 billion yuan, marking the first time in the second half of the year that monthly household deposits exceeded 2 trillion yuan [3][4] - Conversely, non-bank deposits decreased by 1.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.97 trillion yuan, representing the first negative growth in non-bank deposits in the second half of the year [3][5] Monetary Supply Dynamics - The changes in household and non-bank deposits have led to a contrasting performance in M1 and M2 monetary aggregates, with M1 showing an increase and M2 experiencing a decline [2][8] - As of September, M2's year-on-year growth rate was 8.4%, down from 8.8% in August, while M1's growth rate rose to 7.2%, up from 6% in August, indicating enhanced market liquidity [8][9] Economic and Policy Influences - The structural changes in deposits are attributed to a combination of fiscal policy actions, market fluctuations, and shifts in household asset allocation preferences [4][5] - Analysts suggest that the decline in non-bank deposits is influenced by last year's high base effect, market volatility, and adjustments in asset management products [5][6] Investment Behavior - The concept of "deposit migration" reflects residents reallocating their savings into other assets based on changes in expected returns, indicating a dynamic shift in investment behavior [6][7] - Despite the recent slowdown in the migration of household savings to capital markets, the process of asset reallocation continues, as evidenced by improvements in new fund establishment and account openings [6][7]