煤炭行业三季度业绩前瞻，关注全市场唯一煤炭ETF（515220）

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is experiencing a tightening supply-demand situation, leading to improved coal prices in Q3, although year-on-year performance is expected to remain negative due to high base effects from the previous year [3]. Supply Side - Domestic coal production growth is gradually slowing due to safety regulations and overproduction checks, with coal imports continuing to decline, showing a 23% year-on-year drop in September and an 11.1% cumulative decline from January to September [1]. - Safety regulations and overproduction checks are expected to continue constraining coal production, making large-scale production increases unlikely [5]. Demand Side - In July and August, total electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kilowatt-hours, with hydropower generation experiencing negative growth from April to August, leading to increased demand for coal-fired power generation [2]. Price and Performance Outlook - The coal market is expected to see a seasonal demand surge in Q4, with coal prices likely to rise due to potential higher-than-expected demand and cold winter forecasts [4]. - The profitability outlook for the coal sector is improving, with a high dividend yield of 4.99% for the CSI Coal Index as of October 15, attracting investment amid rising market risk aversion [5]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on the only coal ETF in the market (515220), as both fundamental and financial conditions may resonate positively [6].