黄金：冲破4250美元，交易所警示持仓未达高点

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has reached a new high, surpassing $4250 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 60%, while silver prices have risen by over 83% this year [1] Market Performance - International gold prices have broken through $4250 per ounce, with a weekly increase of over $210 [1] - Domestic gold prices closed at 967.29 yuan per gram, with a rise of 1.79%, while silver prices exceeded 12000 yuan per kilogram [1] - The trading activity in the spot, futures, and equity markets has increased significantly [1] Investment Trends - The total scale of domestic gold-themed ETFs has surpassed 200 billion yuan, attracting over 80 billion yuan this year [1] - The number of shares in three gold stock ETFs has doubled this year, increasing from 346 million shares to 1.36 billion shares [1] - Since October 9, net inflows into gold-themed ETFs have exceeded 10 billion yuan [1] Market Dynamics - The largest global gold ETF has seen an increase in holdings by 40 tons since the beginning of the year, totaling 1022.60 tons as of October 15, though still below historical highs [1] - The largest global silver ETF's holdings have increased by nearly 1000 tons since the start of the year, but still fall short of previous peaks by over 5600 tons [1] Economic Influences - Expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut are rising, with predictions of a 25 basis point reduction by the end of October [1] - Market sentiment is bolstered by comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell confirming the likelihood of rate cuts [1] Future Projections - Analysts predict that gold prices may exceed $4500 per ounce by Q1 2026 and could reach $6000 per ounce by 2030 [1] - A potential short-term pullback in gold prices is anticipated if the U.S. government reopens, although the decline is expected to be limited [1]