做多黄金成“最拥挤交易”，你要上车吗

Core Viewpoint - The international spot gold price reached a historic high of $4,220 on October 16, with a weekly increase of $200, raising questions about whether this is the peak [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - A recent Bank of America survey revealed that 43% of investors consider "going long on gold" to be the most crowded trade, surpassing the 39% for "long on the seven major U.S. stocks" [1] - Despite the crowded trade sentiment, 39% of fund managers reported near-zero gold positions, with an average allocation of only 2.4%, indicating a potential for further investment in gold [1] Group 2: Driving Factors - The dovish stance of the Federal Reserve is a key driver for the influx of capital into gold, with indications that monetary tightening may soon end, leading to increased liquidity in the financial system [2] - Heightened geopolitical risks and uncertainties in trade, including the U.S. government's announcement of increased tariffs, have prompted investors to seek gold as a safe haven [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The phenomenon of "crowded trades" can create a self-reinforcing cycle, where rising prices lead to increased buying, further driving up prices [2] - Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its gold price target for the end of 2026 by $600 to $4,900 per ounce, reflecting renewed confidence in gold's resilience [2] Group 4: Dual Market Peaks - The simultaneous historical highs in both gold and U.S. stocks represent a complex market scenario, characterized by extreme optimism in tech growth and deep concerns over macroeconomic risks [3] - This "dual peak" situation may persist, but investors should remain vigilant regarding key indicators such as U.S. inflation, employment, and economic growth data, which could influence future market directions [3]