航空业脱碳“死结”何解？国际航协直指技术推广缓慢，现阶段SAF生产原料已足够

Core Insights - The current landscape of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) in mainland China includes 16 projects, with 8 already operational, and global SAF production capacity is projected to reach 1 million tons by 2025 and 2 million tons by 2026 [2] - Despite the anticipated doubling of production capacity, it will only meet a small fraction of the demand from airlines [2] - SAF is viewed as a feasible solution for decarbonizing the aviation industry, but challenges such as scale and cost remain significant barriers to replacing traditional fossil fuels [2] Production Challenges - A recent IATA report indicates that sufficient raw materials for SAF production exist to support the aviation industry's goal of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, provided they meet sustainability standards [3] - The slow progress in technology adoption is a major obstacle to developing various raw material pathways for SAF production [3] - The current commercial-scale SAF production relies on HEFA technology, which converts plant oils and waste oils into aviation fuel [3] Future Projections - By 2050, it is expected that over 300 million tons of bio-SAF could be produced annually, although competition for raw materials from other industries may limit this potential [4] - If policies and investments are appropriately directed, bio-SAF production could exceed 300 million tons annually by mid-century, with e-SAF projected to produce around 200 million tons [4] Cost and Economic Viability - The high cost of SAF production is a direct consequence of capacity limitations, which discourages airlines from increasing SAF usage [5] - HEFA-SAF currently costs 3-4 times more than traditional aviation fuel, while e-SAF is expected to be 7-8 times more expensive [5] - The average fuel cost constitutes about 30% of airline operating expenses, making policy incentives crucial for narrowing the cost gap and promoting large-scale adoption of SAF [6] Policy and Market Dynamics - The slow growth of global SAF production raises concerns within the aviation industry, highlighting the need for policy interventions to accelerate production [6] - IATA has identified 300 announced SAF projects globally, with 160 expected to be operational by 2030, collectively producing 5.5 million tons [6] - The Chinese government is also enhancing its SAF production capabilities, with Honeywell announcing a project in Shanxi province that will process 150,000 tons annually [6][7] Technological and Strategic Recommendations - To overcome the challenges facing SAF, IATA emphasizes the need for accelerated technology adoption and the unlocking of new SAF production methods, particularly PtL [8] - A coordinated government policy is essential to support innovation and investment, creating a functional SAF market and unlocking new economic opportunities [8] - IATA advocates for a "raw material neutral, technology neutral" approach to SAF development, emphasizing the importance of optimizing existing refining capabilities [10] Global Framework and Collaboration - IATA stresses the necessity of a coherent global framework for SAF development to avoid inefficiencies and market distortions caused by fragmented policies [10] - The CORSIA mechanism is highlighted as a key tool for addressing international aviation CO2 emissions, with participation expected to grow significantly by 2026 [10] - Regional differences in raw material availability will influence local SAF market development, necessitating alignment with globally recognized policies and standards [11]