彻彻底底不装了？就在刚刚！贝森特再发警告：美国经济正在承受苦果，这次警告与他之前的讲话可谓大相径庭

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy, previously described as resilient, is now facing significant challenges due to a government shutdown that has lasted 15 days, resulting in an estimated economic loss of approximately $1.5 billion per day, totaling around $15 billion so far [3][5] - The current GDP growth rate is around 1.6%, and the shutdown's economic losses could potentially erase half of this quarter's growth [3][5] Historical Context - The U.S. has experienced 21 government shutdowns since 1976, with the longest lasting 35 days from late 2018 to early 2019, which resulted in over $11 billion in economic losses and affected over 200,000 employees [5] - The current situation is exacerbated by a political stalemate between Republicans and Democrats, with conflicting priorities on budget cuts and social welfare [7][9] Employment and Inflation - The September employment report revealed only 89,000 new non-farm jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 150,000, marking the worst performance since December of the previous year [5] - Although the Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year growth rate dropped to 3.3% in September, core inflation remains around 4%, far from the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [5] Political Dynamics - The current political deadlock is characterized by a lack of effective governance, with only 17% of respondents in a Gallup poll believing Congress can govern effectively, a figure lower than during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic [7] - The Biden administration faces pressure to compromise, but doing so may be perceived as an admission of fiscal mismanagement ahead of the upcoming elections [9] Fiscal Challenges - The projected federal deficit for this year is approximately $1.7 trillion, a 23% increase from the previous year, with total national debt exceeding $34 trillion, accounting for over 120% of GDP [10] - The reliance on consumer debt is highlighted by the record high of $1.13 trillion in credit card debt as of the second quarter, indicating a fragile economic foundation [12][14] Structural Issues - The current economic situation is described as structurally fatigued rather than a temporary setback, with ongoing job losses and financial strain on households [14][16] - The combination of fiscal constraints, inflation, and employment challenges suggests that mere rhetoric will not resolve the underlying issues facing the economy [16]