多晶硅价格显著回升 产能调控政策即将出台？

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in polysilicon futures prices is attributed to rising market optimism and potential regulatory measures aimed at controlling photovoltaic production capacity [2][3] Market Sentiment - Market sentiment has shifted positively, with analysts noting that the expectation of regulatory policies is driving the increase in polysilicon futures prices [2] - The current market has fully priced in expectations of capacity regulation, although the specifics of these policies remain unclear [2][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The polysilicon market continues to experience an oversupply, with global production in October reaching 133,300 tons and wafer production at 61.92 GW [3] - Despite expectations of production cuts, actual reductions have not met forecasts, leading to continued inventory accumulation [3] - The overall industry inventory stands at approximately 277,000 tons, indicating a high level of stock [3] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that if production cuts in November exceed those in wafer production, the supply-demand balance may improve [4] - There is a cautious outlook on price performance, with expectations that if regulatory policies are implemented and the supply-demand balance is restored, polysilicon prices could show positive movement [4] - However, the market remains under pressure from weak demand and high inventory levels, which may hinder sustained price increases [4][5]