富邑撤回业绩预期 奔富在中国市场怎么了？

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market is undergoing significant changes, impacting not only baijiu but also international wine brands like Penfolds, leading to a downward adjustment in TWE's performance expectations for FY2026 due to weaker-than-expected sales in China [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Following the removal of "double anti" tariffs on Australian wine in 2024, Penfolds regained its position as the largest source of wine in China, achieving record net sales for FY2025, surpassing pre-pandemic levels [3][5]. - Since Q2 of this year, there has been a notable decline in wine consumption driven by changes in business banquet scenarios, adversely affecting Penfolds, which relies heavily on this segment [3][6]. - The market prices for Penfolds' major products, BIN 389 and BIN 407, have dropped significantly, with prices falling by 30 to 50 yuan since the Spring Festival, and current e-commerce prices are below 380 yuan and 550 yuan respectively [5][6]. Group 2: Company Performance and Adjustments - TWE initially projected low to mid-double-digit growth for Penfolds' EBIT for FY2026, but has since retracted this guidance due to a rapid cooling of the Chinese market [8][10]. - In response to the market downturn, TWE plans to reallocate Penfolds' product quotas to other markets and control the risk of parallel imports returning to China [10]. - TWE is exploring partnerships with local baijiu brands to tap into high-end consumer segments, including a recent collaboration with Langjiu to launch limited edition products [10].