Loan Growth, Relatively High Rates to Support Truist's Q3 Earnings

Core Insights - Truist Financial (TFC) is set to announce its third-quarter 2025 results on October 17, with expectations of a strong lending environment and improved net interest income (NII) [1][9] Lending and Loan Demand - Demand for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans, which make up nearly 50% of TFC's total loans, was robust in the upcoming quarter, while consumer loan demand, accounting for almost 40%, was also decent [1] - The overall lending scenario in the quarter was impressive, contributing positively to TFC's financial outlook [1] Earnings and Revenue Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TFC's average earning assets for Q3 is $485 billion, reflecting a 4% increase from the previous year [2] - The consensus estimate for NII is $3.67 billion, indicating a 1.9% year-over-year rise, with management expecting a sequential increase of 2% [4][9] - The consensus estimate for total sales is pegged at $5.15 billion, suggesting a 1.3% year-over-year rise [14] Non-Interest Income - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-interest income is $1.48 billion, showing a slight decline from the prior year, while management anticipates a sequential increase of 5% [8][9] - Service charges on deposits are estimated at $232 million, a 5% rise year-over-year, and card and payment-related fees are expected to reach $233 million, also a 5% increase [5] Mortgage Banking and Investment Income - Mortgage rates declined significantly in Q3, leading to decent refinancing activities and an expected rise in mortgage banking income to $112 million, a 14.3% increase from the previous year [6] - Investment banking and trading income is estimated at $263 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 20.8%, while lending-related fees are expected to rise by 12.5% to $99 million [7] Expenses and Asset Quality - Total adjusted non-interest expenses are projected at $2.91 billion, indicating a 2.8% increase from the prior year, driven by technology investments and inflationary pressures [10] - The provision for credit losses is estimated at $516.9 million, representing a 15.4% year-over-year rise, with non-accrual loans and leases expected to increase by 1% to $1.49 billion [11][12] Earnings Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TFC's earnings is 99 cents per share, revised 1% higher, indicating a 2.1% increase from the previous year [14] - The Earnings ESP for Truist is +0.12%, suggesting a high likelihood of beating the consensus estimate [13]