“四代宅”去化率居前但分化显著，9月沪杭顶豪继续领涨

Core Insights - The new housing market is experiencing a steady recovery in demand and supply, particularly in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, and Hangzhou, while second-hand housing transactions continue to show a slight decline [1][2][3] - The land market is also witnessing a cyclical rebound in transaction volume [1] Market Performance - In September 2025, the average sales absorption rate for new launches in 30 key cities was 39%, a slight decrease of 3 percentage points from August but an increase of 10 percentage points year-on-year [2][3] - The market remains stable at a high level, with varying performance across different cities [2][3] City-Specific Trends - Chengdu had the highest absorption rate at 76%, followed by Changsha at 72%, and both Hangzhou and Xiamen at 67% [6] - Cities like Shanghai, Chengdu, and Hangzhou saw a slight decline in absorption rates but maintained above 40% [6] - In contrast, cities such as Nanjing, Kunming, and Jinan reported absorption rates below 20%, indicating a continued sluggish market [6] Project Performance - New regulations and high-quality projects are driving sales, with significant absorption rates for new launches in cities like Wuhan and Chengdu [8] - Notable projects achieving 100% absorption rates include Chengdu's招商锦城序 and 南京金基屿樾府 [9] Luxury Market Insights - The luxury market in Shanghai and Hangzhou is seeing increased activity, with high-end projects like 金陵华庭 achieving remarkable sales figures [10][11] - The market for luxury properties is not uniformly strong, as only projects with prime locations and superior quality are maintaining high sales rates [16] Discount Strategies - In weaker second-tier cities like Xi'an, Suzhou, and Zhengzhou, developers are employing discount strategies and enhanced commission structures to boost sales [14][15] Future Outlook - The new housing transaction volume is expected to remain low, with potential year-on-year declines due to high base effects from the previous year [14] - Market differentiation is likely to continue, with core cities maintaining high activity levels while others may struggle with low absorption rates [16]