金银疯涨齐新高！期金首破4300美元，期银盘中涨超4%

Core Insights - Gold and silver prices have reached historical highs due to factors such as the U.S. government shutdown, trade tensions, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][6][8] Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have surged approximately 60% since the beginning of the year, with spot gold reaching over $4,290 and COMEX December futures rising about 2.5% [1][6] - Analysts predict that the Federal Reserve is highly likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in both October and December, with probabilities of 98% and 95% respectively [6] - Bank of America has raised its 2026 gold price target to $5,000 per ounce, citing policy uncertainty and structural supply shortages as key drivers [6][8] Group 2: Silver Market Conditions - Silver prices have also seen significant increases, with COMEX December futures breaking $53.60, reflecting a daily gain of about 4.4% [3][11] - The silver market is facing severe supply shortages, with inventories down by one-third since 2021, leading to a rare phenomenon of spot silver trading at a premium [6][11] - Bank of America has set a 2026 silver price target of $65, despite an expected 11% decline in physical demand [11] Group 3: Investment Trends and Sentiment - The demand for safe-haven assets like gold is increasing due to heightened geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, prompting investors to seek stability [7][10] - Analysts suggest that gold is being viewed not only as an inflation hedge but also as a safeguard against the financial system itself, especially in light of the U.S. weaponizing the dollar [10] - The current bullish trend in gold is supported by strong institutional and retail investor demand, with prices rising approximately 15% in the past month [10]