A股三季度哪些赛道表现比较好？四季度该如何布局？

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market in Q3 2025 has seen a significant focus on technology and high-end manufacturing sectors, driven by the explosive growth of the AI hardware industry and favorable monetary policies [3][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - The technology and high-end manufacturing sectors, represented by communications, electronics, power equipment, and non-ferrous metals, have become the focal point for capital [3]. - The AI hardware industry, including chips and servers, has experienced explosive growth, attracting significant investment [3]. - The banking sector has seen a decline of 10.19%, marking it as the only industry to fall in Q3, while traditional sectors like real estate and consumer goods have shown weak performance [3]. Group 2: Q4 Strategy Shifts - There is a consensus that technology growth will continue in Q4, but caution is advised regarding high trading congestion leading to volatility [4]. - Internal theme shifts within the technology sector are expected, with a focus on upstream computing hardware and downstream applications like AI in healthcare and intelligent driving [4][5]. - The "anti-involution" and cyclical resonance strategies are highlighted, with supply-side optimization in chemicals and machinery benefiting from global manufacturing recovery [5]. Group 3: Defensive Asset Allocation - The CSI Dividend Index offers a yield exceeding 4%, with sectors like electricity and coal providing bond-like attributes during a declining interest rate cycle [6]. - Historical data suggests that low-valuation dividend strategies have a high success rate in Q4 [6]. Group 4: Dynamic Strategy - A balanced approach is recommended, focusing on AI applications, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals while being cautious of overheating in computing hardware [8]. - The "dumbbell strategy" emphasizes selecting cyclical stocks with rigid supply and improving demand, alongside consumer stocks benefiting from the "anti-involution" trend [9]. Group 5: Policy Catalysts - Expectations around the "14th Five-Year Plan" may highlight new themes such as digital economy and elderly care, potentially driving market focus [10]. - Continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could provide further opportunities for technology and precious metals in the Hong Kong market [11].