标普全球：特朗普关税将令全球企业今年损失逾1.2万亿美元

Core Insights - The tariff policy of the Trump administration is projected to result in over $1.2 trillion in losses for global businesses by 2025, with most costs ultimately passed on to consumers [1] - The report indicates that the estimated losses may be conservative, based on research from approximately 15,000 analysts covering 9,000 publicly traded companies [1] Group 1: Financial Impact - Direct losses for publicly traded companies are estimated at around $907 billion, with additional indirect impacts on private companies, private equity, and venture capital [1] - The report suggests that consumers are paying higher prices for the same goods while receiving less value, indicating that the burden on consumers may be underestimated [1] Group 2: Future Projections - Analysts expect corporate profit margins to shrink by 64 basis points by 2025, further narrowing to 28 basis points by 2026, and declining to 8 to 10 basis points by 2027-2028 [1] - The report highlights 2025 as a definitive year for profit decline, with 2026 and 2027 serving as critical years to assess market confidence in rebalancing [2] Group 3: Policy Changes and Market Reactions - The cancellation of the tax exemption for goods under $800 in May is identified as a significant turning point that exacerbated the impact of tariffs [2] - The report notes that if the current turmoil is temporary, the tariff wave and supply chain restructuring could be viewed as short-term friction rather than a long-term structural tax burden on corporate profits [2]