稀土之战：中国手中这张“泥巴牌”，威力有多大？

Core Viewpoint - The recent easing of tensions in the US-China trade war, particularly regarding rare earth exports, highlights the strategic leverage China holds in the global market, raising questions about how long this leverage can last [1]. Group 1: Understanding Rare Earths - Rare earths refer to a group of 17 chemical elements essential for modern industry, despite their name suggesting scarcity [3]. - These elements are crucial for various applications, categorized into three types based on their uses [4]. - China is the only country capable of completing the entire production process of rare earths, from mining to manufacturing [5]. Group 2: China's Control Measures - In April, China implemented export licensing for seven types of medium and heavy rare earths, critical for military and semiconductor industries [7]. - By October, China expanded its control to include five additional types of medium and heavy rare earths and imposed restrictions on 26 types of related equipment and materials [8]. - This signifies a comprehensive control from raw materials to equipment [9]. Group 3: The Value of Rare Earths - Rare earths are not merely cheap commodities; they are considered "technology goods" due to their minimal cost impact on final products [13]. - The true dependency of Western industries on China lies in the complete supply chain, which includes complex processes that are difficult to replicate [14][15]. Group 4: Challenges for the US - The US has initiated plans to reduce reliance on Chinese rare earths, but current capabilities are limited, with 90% of mined materials still needing to be sent to China for processing [23]. - The only US rare earth miner, MP Materials, aims to establish a complete supply chain by 2026, but this is just the beginning of a long process [25]. Group 5: Future of China's Rare Earth Leverage - In the short term, China holds a strategic advantage, as the US will require at least five years to establish an alternative supply chain [26]. - Long-term challenges include Western nations accelerating their decoupling efforts, forming alliances to create alternative supply routes, and potential domestic economic impacts on China's rare earth industry [28]. - The recent easing of export restrictions suggests a strategic approach to maintain balance without severing ties completely [29]. Group 6: Conclusion on Global Supply Chains - The ongoing rare earth conflict reflects a broader supply chain restructuring, emphasizing the risks of single-source dependencies [32]. - Historical patterns indicate that no single entity can maintain a monopoly over critical industrial resources indefinitely [32].