【东吴芦哲】直接融资回暖、存款继续活化——2025年9月金融数据点评

Core Insights - In September 2025, the People's Bank of China reported a new social financing scale of 3.53 trillion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 229.7 billion yuan, slightly below seasonal performance [2][4] - The total amount of RMB loans increased by 1.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 300 billion yuan, also lower than seasonal averages [2][6] Social Financing Scale - The social financing scale saw a slight decline compared to the seasonal average of 3.81 trillion yuan over the past three years, with a notable decrease in RMB loans and government bond financing [2][4] - The breakdown of social financing shows that corporate bond financing increased by 105 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.03 billion yuan, while stock financing also rose by 500 million yuan, marking a continuous increase for seven months [2][5] Loan Issuance - Financial institutions reported an increase of 1.29 trillion yuan in RMB loans, which is 300 billion yuan less than the same period last year, indicating a decline in loan demand [2][6] - The balance of RMB loans as of September 2025 showed a year-on-year growth rate decrease of 0.2 percentage points to 6.60% [2][3] Monetary Supply - As of the end of September 2025, M1 grew by 7.2% year-on-year, while M2 growth slowed to 8.4%, reflecting a narrowing of the M2-M1 gap [3][7] - The total new RMB deposits in September amounted to 2.21 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.53 trillion yuan, with significant reductions in fiscal deposits [3][7] Financing Structure - The financing structure is showing signs of optimization, with a shift towards direct financing, as evidenced by the increase in corporate bond and stock financing [5][6] - The proportion of government bonds, corporate bonds, and stock financing in new social financing reached 44.36%, an increase of 9.52 percentage points compared to the previous year [5][6] Policy Outlook - Anticipated fiscal and monetary policy measures in the fourth quarter may stimulate financing demand, including early issuance of local government bonds and continued liquidity support [8] - The implementation of policy financial tools is expected to enhance project financing and improve the overall financing environment [8]