弱现实压制 锰硅价格持续低位震荡

Core Viewpoint - After the National Day holiday, manganese silicon prices have shown a low-level fluctuation trend, with both futures and spot prices weakening [1] Supply Dynamics - The manganese silicon market is gradually returning to its fundamental industrial logic, with a September average daily production of 29,946.8 tons, an increase of 18.82% year-on-year [2] - Despite high supply pressure leading to a downward price trend, production remains relatively high, with an operating rate of 43.19% and an average daily output of 29,175 tons as of October 10 [2] - Production in major regions remains robust, particularly in Inner Mongolia with an average daily output of 14,280 tons, only slightly down from previous highs [2] - The Ningxia region shows the most significant reduction in production, with a recent average daily output of 6,015 tons, down 1,175 tons from its peak [2] Demand Conditions - Steel mills maintain stable production levels, with a high furnace operating rate of 84.27% and capacity utilization rate of 90.55%, both showing year-on-year increases [3] - Steel production remains relatively unchanged, with a weekly output of 8.6331 million tons, reflecting a slight decrease of 3.76 thousand tons [3] - The profitability of steel mills is deteriorating, with only 56.28% of sampled mills reporting profits, a decline over nine consecutive weeks [3] Cost Support - Manganese silicon production costs in northern and southern regions are reported at 5,836 yuan/ton and 6,276 yuan/ton, respectively, showing only minor declines from previous highs [4] - The main factors influencing manganese silicon costs, such as electricity and manganese ore prices, are trending weaker, but the stability of electricity prices and recent declines in manganese ore prices provide some cost support [4] - Overall, while supply contraction is limited and demand remains weak, there is some cost support, leading to expectations of continued low-level fluctuations in manganese silicon prices [4]