从体育到AI，美国市场“深陷赌瘾”，而特朗普则“推波助澜”

Core Argument - The article argues that the United States is experiencing an unprecedented speculative frenzy, driven by a widespread "gambling mentality" that permeates various aspects of the economy, politics, and culture [1][2]. Group 1: Speculative Activities - Speculative activities have expanded beyond traditional markets like stocks, bonds, and real estate, now encompassing areas such as cryptocurrencies, which have grown into a market valued at approximately $4 trillion [2]. - In 2022, Americans placed a total of $150 billion in sports betting, marking a 24% increase from 2023, indicating a shift towards a more participatory gambling culture [2]. Group 2: Role of Washington - Washington's role has shifted from being a regulator to a facilitator of speculation, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the Trump administration's deregulation contributing to the speculative environment [3]. - A notable example includes the Intercontinental Exchange's $2 billion investment in Polymarket, a platform allowing bets on various events, which reflects a bet on the future of speculation and the favorable regulatory environment under the Trump administration [3]. Group 3: Bubble or New Normal? - The article raises the question of whether the current situation represents a new normal of integrated speculation in daily life or a significant financial bubble, with the author leaning towards the latter [4]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that risk asset prices are significantly above fundamental values, increasing the likelihood of disorderly adjustments [5]. Group 4: Future Risks and Predictions - The author suggests that the intertwining of political forces and speculation creates systemic risks, with the potential for a chain reaction if any part of this speculative environment collapses [6]. - The current speculative frenzy is characterized as a profound social and political issue, with potential destructive impacts that could exceed expectations if it spirals out of control [6].