听说美国人要买，阿根廷人“狂卖”比索

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. intervention to stabilize the Argentine peso has failed to restore public confidence, leading to a market battle characterized by a "buy-sell" dynamic among investors [1]. Group 1: U.S. Intervention Efforts - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra has taken actions to prevent the depreciation of the peso, including direct market purchases and declaring it "undervalued" [1]. - The U.S. is considering expanding the initial $20 billion swap facility to $40 billion through private arrangements with international banks [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Despite initial rebounds in the peso following Becerra's commitment for assistance, the currency has depreciated against the dollar almost every trading day since September 29 [2]. - Market skepticism is reflected in the soaring short-term interest rates, which reached an alarming 157%, further straining the fragile economy [1]. Group 3: Election Impact and Capital Flight - The upcoming legislative elections are a central variable in market pricing, with fears that President Milei's potential defeat could lead to increased capital flight and further depreciation of the peso [6]. - Data from the Argentine Central Bank indicates that citizens have net purchased $18 billion over five months, averaging about $400 per resident, highlighting a trend of capital outflow [4]. Group 4: Economic Fundamentals - The peso's exchange rate does not adequately reflect the country's high inflation, which has risen by 12% since April, suggesting that the currency is overvalued [7]. - Historical parallels are drawn to past currency defense efforts, with analysts recalling the 1992 pound crisis as a cautionary tale for current interventions [6].