三季度宏观数据下周发布，政策适时加力必要性上升

Economic Growth and Forecasts - China's GDP growth in the first half of the year was 5.3%, exceeding expectations, with third-quarter GDP growth forecasted at 4.8% [1][2] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintained its 4.8% growth forecast for China, despite global economic challenges [2] - Economic indicators suggest a potential slowdown in investment and consumption, with third-quarter GDP growth possibly declining to 4.9% [2] Industrial Production and Demand - Industrial production showed resilience in September, with a manufacturing PMI of 49.8%, indicating slight improvement [3] - Predictions for September's industrial value-added growth are around 5.1%, slightly lower than the previous month [3] - Some sectors, such as automotive, are experiencing production slowdowns, while others like coal consumption have shown declines [3] Consumer Spending Trends - The forecast for September's retail sales growth is 3.1%, down from 3.4% in the previous month, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending [4][5] - The "old-for-new" policy has positively impacted certain consumer goods, with significant sales growth in home appliances and smart home products [5][6] - The automotive sector remains a significant contributor to retail sales, with production and sales figures showing strong year-on-year growth [6] Investment and Infrastructure - Fixed asset investment growth is predicted to be flat at 0% for September, reflecting ongoing economic challenges [6] - Infrastructure investment remains supported by strong excavator sales, which increased by 25.4% year-on-year in September [7] - The government is expected to enhance fiscal policies to support infrastructure and manufacturing investments in the fourth quarter [8][10] Policy Measures and Economic Outlook - There is an increasing necessity for timely policy adjustments to sustain economic growth, particularly in light of rising risks in key economic indicators [8][9] - The government plans to issue more bonds and enhance fiscal support for various sectors, including technology and infrastructure [9][10] - The overall macroeconomic policy is expected to remain accommodative, with a focus on stabilizing expectations and boosting confidence in the economy [10]