国金交运：中国对美船舶收取特别港务费，关注油运干散及港口板块

Investment Logic - China will impose a special port fee on U.S. vessels starting October 14, 2025, targeting U.S.-owned, operated, and flagged ships, as well as those built in the U.S. [1][7] - The fee will be collected by local maritime authorities, with a standard charge of 400 RMB (approximately 56 USD) per net ton, increasing annually [1][8]. Affected Capacity - The affected capacity includes U.S.-owned and flagged vessels, with container ships totaling 352,500 TEU (1.1% of global capacity), oil tankers at 20.418 million dwt (1.9%), and dry bulk carriers at 14.907 million dwt (2.1%) [2][12]. - The actual impact on U.S. capacity is reduced due to exemptions for Chinese-built vessels, resulting in effective percentages of 0.86% for container ships, 1.64% for oil tankers, and 0.95% for dry bulk carriers [13][14]. Economic Impact on Shipping Rates - The special port fee significantly affects oil and dry bulk shipping rates, with the fee accounting for approximately 89% of the current rate for VLCCs on the U.S. Gulf to Far East route and 123% on the Middle East to Far East route [25][26]. - For dry bulk carriers, the fee represents 76% of the rate for the Brazil to China route and 133% for the Australia to China route, indicating a loss of economic viability [28][29]. Short-term Effects on Shipping Companies - The imposition of the fee is expected to lead to a short-term supply shortage, driving up shipping rates as U.S. operators may cancel voyages or switch to transshipment routes [29][30]. - The efficiency loss from these changes will likely result in increased shipping costs and a reconfiguration of shipping routes, particularly affecting U.S. oil and dry bulk shipping to China [29][30]. Impact on Port Operations - The special port fee will not directly benefit port companies, as the fee is collected by maritime authorities rather than port operators [30]. - However, the reduction in U.S. shipping activity may lead to decreased throughput at affected ports, although this could be mitigated by other international operators filling the gap [30][33]. Investment Recommendations - Companies in the oil and dry bulk shipping sectors are recommended for investment due to potential rate increases stemming from supply disruptions [34]. - Ports with key transshipment hubs, particularly those oriented towards Southeast Asia, are also expected to benefit from shifts in trade flows [34].