盾博dbg：美国财政部增加国债供应逼迫美联储

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated a potential pause in the reduction of U.S. Treasury securities from the balance sheet in the coming months [1] - The Treasury Department is expanding the issuance of short-term Treasury bills to support a higher Treasury General Account (TGA) balance, with a target increase from $850 billion to at least $900 billion [3] - The core principle for maintaining the TGA balance is to ensure sufficient funds to cover a week of government expenditures and maturing tradable debt [3] Group 2 - The increase in TGA balance will exert "secondary pressure" on bank reserves, as funds from the purchase of Treasury bills will move from commercial bank accounts to the TGA at the Federal Reserve [4] - Barclays strategist Samuel Earl noted that the reduction of Treasury securities by the Federal Reserve could shrink the banking system's reserves, which are currently around $3 trillion, nearing the recognized lower limit of adequacy [3][4] - The net supply of short-term Treasury bills is projected to be approximately $146 billion this month, exceeding previous market expectations by $80 billion, indicating stronger financing needs from the Treasury [4] Group 3 - The official quarterly target balance for the TGA has remained stable at $850 billion for most of the past year, but it is expected to rise to $900 billion in the upcoming borrowing forecast [4] - The upward trend in TGA balance is anticipated to persist for more than six months, suggesting ongoing pressure on the Federal Reserve to halt or even expand its balance sheet [4]