美联储重启降息，有色矿业景气向上

Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metal industry is experiencing a positive trend, with the CSI 300 index rising by 17.9% and the CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Mining Theme Index increasing by 50.20% in Q3 2025 [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision to restart interest rate cuts has led to a surge in gold prices, while industrial metals like copper and aluminum are benefiting from ongoing supply disruptions [1][2] - Lithium prices have stabilized and begun to rise due to supply-side reforms, while rare earth prices are supported by tightened supply and increased exports [1] Precious Metals Outlook - Gold prices are expected to continue rising due to the Fed's anticipated rate cuts and increased demand driven by macroeconomic uncertainties and trade tensions [2] - Central bank gold purchases are seen as a long-term trend, further supporting gold prices [2] Industrial Metals Outlook - Copper prices are likely to rise due to ongoing supply disruptions and increasing demand from sectors such as electric vehicles and AI [3] - Aluminum supply is expected to tighten as domestic production peaks and international construction progresses slowly, leading to potential price increases [3] Minor Metals Outlook - Rare earth exports are subject to increasing controls, enhancing China's strategic position in the global market [4] - The fourth quarter is typically a peak season for procurement in the renewable energy sector, which is expected to support rare earth prices [4] Energy Metals Outlook - Cobalt supply is projected to face a significant shortfall due to lower-than-expected export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo, likely raising long-term prices [5] - Lithium demand remains strong, with expectations for continued production increases in downstream sectors [6] Investment Opportunities - The mining ETF (561330) has seen over 600 million yuan inflow recently, indicating strong investor interest amid favorable economic conditions [7] - Investors are encouraged to monitor the mining ETF and the Non-Ferrous 60 ETF (159881), which have significant allocations in gold, copper, and rare earths [7] - The current price-to-book ratios for the non-ferrous metal indices are at high percentiles historically, suggesting potential investment opportunities during market corrections [7]