dbg markets盾博：交易员押注美联储年底前将加息50个基点

Group 1 - Global traders are betting on the Federal Reserve implementing at least one unconventional rate cut by the end of the year, shifting from a gradual easing expectation to a more aggressive policy adjustment to address potential economic pressures [1][3] - Market funds are increasingly flowing into positions targeting the Fed's November or December policy meetings, with a clear core bet on a "single rate cut of 50 basis points," indicating a concentrated betting strategy rather than scattered trades [3] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has delayed key economic data releases, creating a "data vacuum," but market behavior has already anticipated future data, which may reveal weaknesses in U.S. economic growth momentum [3] Group 2 - The recent escalation of global trade tensions, including tariff policy adjustments and supply chain restructuring rumors, has heightened concerns about U.S. exports and manufacturing, potentially suppressing economic recovery and increasing the likelihood of aggressive Fed easing [3] - Investors are advised to maintain a slightly bullish positioning in light of economic data uncertainty and trade disruptions, as excessive caution may lead to missed opportunities for potential gains [4] - The "data blindness" caused by the U.S. government shutdown is affecting global policymakers, complicating their ability to assess external environments and increasing the risk of policy misjudgments in major economies like Japan, the Eurozone, and the UK [4]