Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-17 02:06Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the profit forecast for China Tower (00788) for 2025 and 2026, with a target price of HKD 14.00, indicating a 20.1% upside potential from the current stock price [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue reached CNY 74.32 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 8.71 billion, up 6.8%, aligning with CICC's expectations [2] - In Q3 2025, revenue was CNY 24.72 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 2.95 billion, up 4.5% [2] Business Segments - Revenue growth in the two wings business remains strong, while tower business revenue shows signs of slowing down. For 1-3Q25, revenue growth rates for various segments were: tower business -0.7%, indoor distribution +11.3%, smart connection +16.8%, and energy +11.5%. In Q3 2025, the growth rates were: tower business -1.2%, indoor distribution +9.8%, smart connection +13.2%, and energy +15.9% [3] - The operator business revenue in Q3 2025 decreased by 0.2%, likely due to cost control measures by operators leading to a decline in non-rental service revenue from the tower business. As of the end of Q3, the number of tower sites reached 2.137 million, a 2.1% increase from the beginning of the year, with an average of 1.81 tenants per site, unchanged from the beginning of the year [3] EBITDA and Profitability - EBITDA growth has slowed, potentially due to credit impairment impacts, while net profit showed good year-on-year growth. For the first three quarters, EBITDA increased by 2.5%, and net profit grew by 6.8%. In Q3 2025, EBITDA was CNY 16.73 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, and net profit was CNY 2.95 billion, up 4.5% [4] - The slowdown in internal profit growth in Q3 2025 compared to the first half of 2025 is attributed to rising costs and expenses, including credit impairment losses [4] Accounting Changes - The company announced a change in accounting estimates, extending the depreciation period for indoor distribution assets from 7 years to 10 years, expected to reduce the depreciation expense for 2025 by approximately CNY 870 million. This change is based on improved operational and maintenance practices and aligns with the actual usage of assets [5] - The adjustment in depreciation policy is expected to enhance the company's profit and dividend base for 2025, thereby boosting shareholder returns [5]