4283美元！纽约金创历史新高，伦敦银逼空潮同步上演，上金所发布预警

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has surged dramatically, surpassing $4,000 per ounce and reaching a peak of $4,266.8 per ounce on October 16, 2025, while silver has experienced a "short squeeze" in London, with spot silver prices exceeding $52.97 per ounce, marking an increase of over 12% this month and over 80% year-to-date [2][3]. Group 1: Silver Market Dynamics - The recent widening price gap between London spot silver and New York COMEX silver indicates a tight demand in the London market, with liquidity issues leading to a short squeeze scenario [3]. - The total holdings of major overseas silver ETFs increased from 24,957 tons on February 6 to 28,484 tons by October 13, a rise of 14.13%, while the LBMA silver inventory was only 24,581 tons as of September, highlighting a significant shortage in physical silver [3][4]. - The London market is facing a liquidity crisis due to inventory transfers, with free-flowing silver stocks dropping from approximately 850 million ounces to less than 200 million ounces over the past six years [4]. Group 2: Industrial Demand and Speculation - The strong industrial demand for silver, driven by developments in renewable energy and AI, is contributing to a supply-demand gap, exacerbated by speculative investments in silver as gold prices rise [5]. - The upcoming delivery of the COMEX silver 2510 contract by October 31 is a focal point for market participants, with concerns that ongoing tightness in the London market could further elevate silver prices [5][6]. Group 3: Historical Context and Market Regulation - Historical instances of similar market conditions, such as the Hunt brothers' manipulation in the late 1970s, suggest that exchanges may intervene by adjusting margin requirements or limiting trading to prevent excessive speculation [6]. - The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) is actively monitoring the situation and may implement measures to alleviate current market tensions [6]. Group 4: Future Price Outlook - The expectation of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could continue to support silver prices, as lower rates typically weaken the dollar and enhance the appeal of silver as a safe-haven asset [8][9]. - The ongoing supply constraints and increasing investment demand for silver suggest that prices may continue to rise, with the current market dynamics favoring a bullish outlook for both silver and gold [9].