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核心CPI创近19个月以来新高，9月价格领域释放多重积极信号
Hua Xia Shi Bao·2025-10-17 02:14

Core Insights - The overall consumption market in China remained stable in September, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a slight increase of 0.1% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% [2][5] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth and reaching the highest level in nearly 19 months [5][6] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month for two consecutive months, with a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, but the rate of decline narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [2][6] CPI Analysis - The CPI's month-on-month increase of 0.1% in September ended the previous month's stagnation, driven by a 0.7% rise in food prices, which contributed approximately 0.13 percentage points to the CPI increase [4][5] - Seasonal price increases were observed in fresh vegetables, eggs, fresh fruits, lamb, and beef, with price increases ranging from 0.9% to 6.1% [4] - Conversely, pork and aquatic product prices decreased by 0.7% and 1.8%, respectively, due to sufficient market supply [4] PPI Analysis - The PPI's year-on-year decline of 2.3% reflects a clearer upward trend, with various industries experiencing price increases or reduced declines, contributing to the PPI's stability [6][7] - Key industries such as coal processing, coal mining, and black metal smelting saw price increases of 3.8%, 2.5%, and 0.2%, respectively, for two consecutive months [6] - Input factors, particularly the decline in international oil prices, exerted downward pressure on domestic oil-related industries, but the overall impact on the PPI was limited [7] Future Outlook - Predictions indicate that the decline in pork prices will continue to weigh on the CPI in October, but increased travel during the National Day holiday is expected to boost service prices [3] - The annual CPI is projected to stabilize around 0%, while the PPI is anticipated to fluctuate at low levels, with a potential for positive growth by 2026 [3]