“颠覆人力先行，经济效益需时”！美联储讲真话了：AI即将对就业市场产生影响

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that AI is reshaping the job market, with technical unemployment beginning to manifest before productivity gains are realized [1][2][3] - Federal Reserve officials acknowledge that AI is accelerating applications in call centers and programming roles, leading to a surge in the number of applicants for each job opening [1][2] - A Stanford University study cited by Fed officials indicates that employment in the most affected occupations has decreased by approximately 13%, primarily in support and administrative roles [1][2] Group 2 - The latest Beige Book report from the Federal Reserve shows that more employers are reducing staff through layoffs and natural attrition, attributing some of this to increased investment in AI technology [2] - Retailers are particularly cutting jobs in call centers and IT-related positions, with many companies indicating potential layoffs in the coming year [1][2] - Despite the impact of AI on hiring practices, few companies report layoffs directly caused by AI, as many are focusing on retraining employees instead [3] Group 3 - The economic benefits of AI are expected to take time to materialize, with analysts predicting that the real impact on economic data will not be evident until the end of this decade and into the next [4][5] - Current AI adoption rates in the U.S. are around 9.2%, with skepticism from some analysts regarding the hype surrounding this AI cycle [5] - Historical patterns suggest that technological innovations typically lead to economic growth and job creation rather than job losses [4][5]