世界黄金协会研究负责人:今年金价已创45次新高,但市场尚未饱和，意思就是美元贬值没到位吗？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent surge in gold prices, reaching new highs, is not solely driven by the depreciation of the US dollar but is influenced by multiple factors including central bank purchases and heightened demand for safe-haven assets [1][12] - Gold prices have increased significantly this year, rising from approximately 2800 USD/ounce to 4379.2 USD/ounce, a cumulative increase of over 56%, while the US dollar index has dropped about 12% from its peak last year [3][6] - Historical data indicates that the explanatory power of the US dollar's exchange rate on gold prices is diminishing, with current dollar depreciation contributing only about 20% to the recent price increases [3][6] Group 2 - The concept of an "unsaturated market" reflects a structural upgrade in global gold demand, driven by three main forces: central bank purchases, democratization of investment demand, and supply constraints [6][7] - Central banks have shown a structural increase in gold reserves, with a total purchase of 415 tons expected by mid-2025, indicating a robust demand driven by concerns over the stability of the global monetary system [6][7] - The investment demand for gold has broadened, with ordinary investors increasingly participating through ETFs and physical gold purchases, transforming gold from a niche investment to a mainstream asset [6][7] Group 3 - A three-dimensional analytical framework of "exchange rate - reserves - risk" is proposed to understand the dynamics of gold prices and market saturation, moving beyond a singular focus on the US dollar [9][10] - The marginal effect of US dollar depreciation on gold prices is decreasing, with predictions suggesting that even if the dollar continues to depreciate, its impact on gold prices will be limited [9][10] - Geopolitical and economic uncertainties are creating dual support for gold demand, indicating that even with stable exchange rates, risk events can still drive gold prices upward [9][10]