美元存款利率还会再降吗？

Core Insights - Recent divergence in dollar deposit interest rates among banks, with some offering higher rates for shorter terms and others for longer terms [1][2] - The expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is influencing the current interest rate landscape for dollar deposits [3] Group 1: Divergence in Dollar Deposit Rates - The divergence in dollar deposit interest rates among banks is primarily due to expectations regarding Federal Reserve rate adjustments, market supply and demand, and individual bank strategies [2] - Foreign banks are more responsive to international market changes, predicting a continued decline in short-term rates, while some domestic banks maintain higher long-term rates to attract deposits [2] - Smaller banks often use high short-term rates as a marketing strategy, while larger state-owned banks focus on long-term stability through tiered interest rates [2] Group 2: Future of Dollar Deposit Rates - There is a high probability that dollar deposit rates at small and medium-sized banks will decline to the "2% range" within the year, driven by ongoing Federal Reserve rate cuts [3] - As the Federal Reserve lowers its benchmark rates, the cost of dollar funding for banks will decrease, further pushing down deposit rates [3] - Evidence of "2% range" rates is already emerging, with some banks having reduced rates below 3% and others expected to follow suit [3] Group 3: Investment Recommendations for Dollar Deposits - Current advice suggests caution against blindly investing in long-term dollar deposits; short-term products may be considered with awareness of interest and exchange rate risks [4] - A strategy of "short-term locking + purpose matching" is recommended for dollar deposits, especially for those with specific dollar usage needs [4] - Diversification is emphasized, with suggestions to consider dollar money market funds for liquidity and returns, as well as equity dollar assets through QDII funds targeting U.S. tech stocks [4]