金荣中国:美国地区银行再现危机，金价破位上行单边走高

Market Overview - International gold prices saw a significant increase, opening at $4,190.53 per ounce and closing at $4,273.52 per ounce, with a peak of $4,275.99 per ounce on October 16 [1] Economic Indicators - The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for October recorded -12.8, falling short of the market expectation of 8.5 and down from the previous value of 23.2 [3] - New York Fed reported a decline in service sector activity, with the index dropping 4.2 points to -23.6, marking the worst performance since January 2021 [3] - Employment indicators in the New York region have declined for two consecutive months, reflecting a deteriorating business environment [3] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Waller supports further rate cuts later in the month, but notes significant uncertainty due to the government shutdown and lack of official economic data [4] - Waller highlighted conflicting signals in the economic outlook, with strong growth but a tightening labor market [4] Commodity Outlook - HSBC's commodity outlook report suggests that gold's upward momentum may continue until 2026, driven by strong central bank purchases, ongoing fiscal concerns in the U.S., and expectations of further monetary easing [5] - The report emphasizes that the U.S. fiscal deficit is a key driver of gold demand, as investors increasingly view gold as a hedge against debt sustainability risks [5] Banking Sector Concerns - U.S. regional banks are facing renewed crises, with Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp reporting significant stock price declines due to loan fraud related to bad commercial mortgages [6] - The KBW Bank Index fell by 3.6% following these developments [6] Consumer Spending Trends - Recent data indicates a slowdown in U.S. consumer demand, with spending on non-essential items like furniture and electronics decreasing [8] - Economic analysts note a trend of reduced retail activity following a strong growth period earlier in the year [8] Government Shutdown - The U.S. Senate failed to advance a temporary funding bill, resulting in a continued government shutdown, with the Republican party needing 60 votes to proceed [9] Geopolitical Developments - President Trump announced productive discussions with President Putin regarding the Ukraine conflict and future trade relations, indicating ongoing diplomatic efforts [10] - The SPDR Gold Trust saw an increase in holdings by 12.02 tons, the largest increase in a month, bringing total holdings to 1,034.62 tons [10] Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic indicators to be released include Eurozone CPI, U.S. new housing starts, building permits, and industrial production [11]