10月降息概率达100%？外部流动性宽松预期上升，恒生科技有望展现出更强劲的向上动能

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Technology Index dropping over 2.5% during the session, while the largest ETF tracking this index also followed the downward trend, with companies like NIO rising against the tide [1] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision is anticipated to signal a potential shift in quantitative tightening policy, with market expectations for a rate cut this month reaching 100%, including a 96.8% probability for a 25 basis point cut [1] - External liquidity easing expectations are likely to boost the Hong Kong stock market, with the Hang Seng Technology Index expected to show stronger upward momentum [1] Group 2 - According to a report by China Merchants Securities, foreign and southbound capital continue to flow into the Hong Kong market, highlighting its valuation advantages, with expectations of two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in Q4 and continued easing into next year [2] - The Hang Seng Technology Index ETF's latest valuation stands at 22.88 times, which is at a historical low point, indicating that over 70% of the time, valuations have been higher than the current level [2] - The technology sector in Hong Kong is expected to benefit from current trends in AI, with foreign capital potentially returning more than expected, supported by ongoing southbound capital inflows [2]