美联储惊天发现：隐秘大鳄美债持仓被低估1.4万亿！

Core Insights - The U.S. Treasury's data significantly underestimates the amount of U.S. government debt held by hedge funds registered in the Cayman Islands, with an estimated underreporting of approximately $1.4 trillion by the end of 2024 [1][3] - The Federal Reserve's report highlights that the Treasury International Capital (TIC) data fails to capture the dominance of Cayman Islands hedge funds in basis trading, which has raised concerns among regulators [1][2] Group 1: Underestimation of Debt Holdings - As of the end of 2024, hedge funds in the Cayman Islands are estimated to hold $1.85 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities, an increase of $1 trillion since 2022 [3] - The report indicates that Cayman Islands hedge funds have become the marginal foreign buyers of U.S. Treasuries, surpassing the holdings of China, Japan, and the UK [3][4] - The discrepancy between TIC data and reports to the SEC regarding the amount of U.S. debt held by these funds has widened to nearly $1.4 trillion [3] Group 2: Basis Trading Concerns - Basis trading, which involves leveraging to exploit price differences between Treasury futures and cash bonds, has been a source of concern for regulators since at least 2018 due to its potential to trigger broader financial instability during market downturns [2] - The reliance on leverage by hedge funds in basis trading has raised alarms for the Federal Reserve and the Treasury, especially following market instability linked to these trades in March 2020 [2] - The TIC data serves as a primary source for understanding cross-border capital flows, and the underestimation of Cayman hedge fund holdings poses a significant obstacle for researchers and policymakers analyzing these flows [2]