邓正红能源软实力：地缘动向影响市场原油流与地区供需平衡 能源领域技术主权

Group 1: Market Reactions and Oil Prices - The announcement of a meeting between Trump and Putin to discuss ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to expectations of Russian oil potentially being able to flow freely again, impacting international oil markets and regional supply-demand balance [1][4] - On October 16, international oil prices fell, with West Texas Intermediate crude settling at $57.46 per barrel, down $0.81 (1.39%), and Brent crude at $61.06 per barrel, down $0.85 (1.37%) [1] - India's commitment to stop importing Russian oil, as stated by Trump, has not been officially commented on by Indian officials, indicating uncertainty in the energy relationship between India and Russia [1][4] Group 2: Geopolitical Dynamics - Putin highlighted the restructuring of global energy relations, attributing it to the rise of new economic centers and the actions of Western elites, while asserting that global economic growth continues despite changing growth rates [2] - The U.S. is attempting to reshape global energy trade rules through political pressure, while Russia aims to maintain its rule-making authority through initiatives for technological sovereignty [4][5] Group 3: Energy Supply and Strategic Shifts - Russia's energy export structure is shifting from a European focus (51% in 2020) to an Asian focus (81% by 2025), necessitating a change in Russia's soft power strategy to become a rule-maker in the Asian market [5] - The trend of using the Chinese yuan for oil exports to India represents a significant innovation in Russia's soft power toolkit, aiming to break away from the dollar settlement system [5] Group 4: Future Trends and Strategic Recommendations - Russia needs to enhance its technological sovereignty by accelerating energy technology innovation and building an Asian energy technology cooperation network [6] - India must find a balance between price stability and supply security while gradually reducing its dependence on Russian oil [6] - The potential U.S.-Russia talks may lead to a new energy governance framework, highlighting the need to monitor the evolution of the "geopolitical-financial spiral" pricing mechanism [6]