近期菜粕供需形势分析

Core Viewpoint - The reduction in imported canola seed from Canada due to anti-dumping investigations has significantly impacted China's canola seed imports, leading to low domestic crushing volumes and a potential shift in supply dynamics for canola meal and oil [1][4]. Group 1: Impact of Anti-Dumping Investigation - China's imports of canola seed have sharply decreased, with no imports expected in October and November, and only one shipment of 65,000 tons anticipated in December [1]. - The anti-dumping investigation has led to a theoretical profit margin exceeding 1,000 yuan for importing Canadian canola seeds, but the overall international canola prices are under pressure due to increased supply from new harvests [1][5]. - The relationship between China and Canada shows signs of improvement, which could lead to a potential cancellation of the anti-dumping investigation if trade conditions change [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - From January to August, China imported 2.33 million tons of canola seed, a decrease from 3.42 million tons in the same period last year, with a significant drop in imports from Canada [3]. - The import of canola meal has not declined despite the reduction in canola seed imports, with a notable increase in imports from Dubai and India [4]. - The domestic demand for canola meal is expected to remain stable, with the supply being sufficient to meet the needs despite the seasonal decline in consumption during the fourth quarter [4]. Group 3: International Market Trends - The USDA forecasts a global canola seed production of 89.54 million tons for the 2025/2026 season, which is a slight decrease from previous estimates but still represents a historical high [5]. - International canola prices are under pressure, particularly for Canadian canola, which is experiencing a more significant price drop compared to other major producing regions [5].