矿业大会“LME周”焦点：对铝的看法分歧，铜市普遍看涨，锌市看跌

Group 1: Market Sentiment Overview - The report from Citigroup on October 16 highlights a divided sentiment on aluminum, a consensus bullish outlook on copper, and persistent uncertainty regarding zinc's bearish expectations [1][2][3]. Group 2: Aluminum Market Insights - Citigroup maintains a "structurally bullish" stance on aluminum, citing a demand growth exceeding 3 million tons annually and supply constraints from Indonesia, which is unlikely to replicate China's production capabilities [2]. - Despite the bullish outlook, there is significant market disagreement, indicating that the path for aluminum prices may not be universally accepted [2]. Group 3: Copper and Zinc Market Dynamics - The market generally holds a bullish view on copper, driven by factors such as projected deficits by 2026 and macroeconomic inflows, alongside potential inventory consumption due to price differentials [3]. - In contrast, there is a prevailing bearish sentiment on zinc's supply-demand fundamentals for 2026, with participants lacking confidence in price direction due to low LME inventories and tightening spreads [3]. Group 4: Cautionary Outlook - Citigroup reaffirms its bullish outlook on aluminum and copper, emphasizing that macroeconomic factors will dominate in the next 3-12 months [4]. - The report warns investors about the potential escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Taiwan Strait, which poses significant risks to bullish trades in metals [4].