国研视点丨陈宁：俄、印、巴、南四国货币国际化的历程和启示

Core Viewpoint - The 2008 international financial crisis revealed inherent flaws and potential risks in the US dollar-dominated international monetary system, prompting emerging economies represented by BRICS nations to seek systemic reforms, including currency internationalization, to mitigate various risks. However, due to differences in economic structure, openness, and financial systems, Russia, India, Brazil, and South Africa exhibit varying degrees of enthusiasm and methods for currency internationalization. This article analyzes the processes and characteristics of these countries' currency internationalization to provide insights for advancing the internationalization of the Renminbi [1][3]. Group 1: Russia's Ruble Internationalization - Russia has strategically prioritized the internationalization of the ruble to enhance the global competitiveness of its financial system, especially in the context of the Ukraine conflict, linking it to sanctions mitigation and economic independence [4][6]. - The ruble's internationalization process can be divided into four phases, starting from the post-Soviet era, where Russia aimed to restore the ruble's international status through reforms and establishing a market-based exchange rate system [4][5]. - Following the 2008 financial crisis, Russia actively promoted the ruble's international use through regional and bilateral agreements, with a focus on the Eurasian Economic Union and increasing ruble trade settlements [6][7]. Group 2: India's Rupee Internationalization - India's approach to rupee internationalization has been cautious, evolving through two main phases, with a focus on promoting foreign trade and better integration into international markets [8][9]. - Initially, India adopted a gradual and cautious strategy, emphasizing bilateral invoicing and settlements in rupees, while only fully liberalizing international investments in 2014 [9][10]. - Post-Ukraine conflict, India has become more proactive in promoting rupee internationalization, establishing direct settlement mechanisms and engaging in regional cooperation frameworks to enhance the rupee's global acceptance [10]. Group 3: Brazil's Real Internationalization - Brazil's strategy for the internationalization of the real is characterized by a lack of a defined timeline, focusing instead on enhancing international and regional trade shares [11][12]. - Brazil implemented earlier reforms in exchange rate policy and capital account liberalization, transitioning to a floating exchange rate system in 1999 and promoting capital account openness [11][12]. - The internationalization of the real is facilitated through regional cooperation, particularly within the Southern Common Market, promoting trade settlements in local currencies and exploring the possibility of a unified currency among member states [12]. Group 4: South Africa's Rand Internationalization - South Africa has not set explicit goals or timelines for rand internationalization, but emphasizes the currency's stability and convertibility as crucial for economic support [13][14]. - The rand's internationalization has been primarily focused on regional usage, leveraging South Africa's influence in Africa to expand the currency's reach [13][14]. - Following the end of apartheid, South Africa's economic policies shifted towards market liberalization, enhancing the rand's trading volume and market activity [13]. Group 5: Insights and Implications - The currency internationalization efforts of these countries have shown some success, with increases in global foreign exchange trading shares for the rupee, real, and rand from 2010 to 2022 [15]. - Economic strength and stability are foundational for currency internationalization, with challenges such as inflation and political instability affecting the global acceptance of these currencies [16]. - The process of currency internationalization is also a de-dollarization effort, with a focus on regional expansion as a strategic approach to reduce reliance on the US dollar [18].