大咖房价预言会成真？国家一锤定音，这四类人或受影响

Core Insights - The real estate market in China is undergoing a significant adjustment, aligning with predictions made by Jack Ma in 2017 that housing prices would become more affordable, akin to the price of green onions [1][3]. Market Performance - In the first half of this year, the total sales area of commercial housing in China was 4.79 trillion square meters, representing a substantial year-on-year decline of 19% [3]. - The sales revenue plummeted to 4.71 trillion yuan, marking a dramatic year-on-year drop of 25% [3]. - As of July 2024, the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities was 14,653 yuan per square meter, continuing a downward trend for 27 consecutive months [3]. Government Policies - Since 2016, the government has implemented extensive measures to cool the overheated real estate market, including purchase restrictions, loan limits, and increased mortgage rates [5]. - In 2021 alone, there were approximately 650 regulatory measures targeting the real estate sector [5]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has announced plans for a "major adjustment" in the real estate market starting in 2024, focusing on controlling price increases and optimizing supply-demand relationships [7]. Impact on Stakeholders - Speculators holding multiple properties are facing significant risks due to ongoing price declines and potential increases in property tax trials [9][10]. - Developers are under pressure due to high debt levels, with many facing financing restrictions and potential cash flow issues as sales decline [13]. - Second-hand property owners are struggling to sell their properties, with rising inventory making it increasingly difficult to liquidate assets without substantial price reductions [13]. - Local governments are likely to see reduced land finance income, prompting a need to diversify revenue sources, including the potential introduction of property taxes [14]. Consumer Considerations - First-time homebuyers are encouraged to assess their financial capabilities carefully, as mortgage payments should ideally not exceed 30% of household income to avoid financial strain [12][15].