预测毛利率30%-40%！甲骨文安抚投资者，别信“AI只赚吆喝不赚钱”？

Core Insights - Oracle has committed to achieving a gross margin of 30% to 40% for its AI data center business, primarily driven by NVIDIA chip rentals, to address market concerns about declining profitability [1] - The company has raised its cloud business revenue forecast for fiscal year 2030 to $166 billion, a 15% increase from previous estimates, indicating significant growth potential [1] Financial Performance - Oracle's GPU rental business has reported a gross margin of only 16% over the past five quarters, significantly lower than the company's overall gross margin of approximately 70% [1] - In the most recent quarter, Oracle generated about $900 million in revenue from NVIDIA chip rentals, with a gross profit of only $125 million, resulting in a gross margin of 14% [3] - The latest Blackwell chips have underperformed, leading to a nearly $100 million loss in the same quarter, which has negatively impacted the overall GPU gross margin [3] Market Dynamics - Oracle's ability to meet its gross margin commitments largely depends on its bargaining power with NVIDIA, which has significant pricing power due to its dominant market position [4] - Compared to competitors like Microsoft and Amazon, Oracle is at a disadvantage as they rely less on NVIDIA chips and have developed their own AI chips to mitigate costs [4] Business Diversification - Oracle's cloud business is not solely dependent on GPU rentals; it has signed contracts worth $65 billion with four cloud customers in a recent 30-day period, indicating a diversified revenue stream [6] - The company is also attempting to reduce its reliance on NVIDIA by increasing its rental of AMD chips, although it has faced losses in this area as well [6] Industry Challenges - The GPU rental market remains uncertain, with customer agreements typically locking in prices for a period, which can lead to fluctuating profit margins based on provider costs [7] - Oracle rented approximately 270,000 GPUs in the most recent quarter, while competitors like CoreWeave reported higher revenues despite having fewer GPUs, highlighting competitive pressures in the market [7]