自然堂港股IPO，18%收入增速目标落空，如何破解“单腿走路”

Core Insights - Natural Hall, a domestic beauty brand, has officially submitted its IPO application, with Huatai International and UBS Group as joint sponsors [1] - The company is facing challenges such as slower growth compared to competitors and over-reliance on a single brand, leading to a "mid-life crisis" [2] Financial Performance - Natural Hall aimed for an 18% annual revenue growth but has not met this target in the past three years, with revenue growth rates of 7.2% from 2022 to 2024 [5] - Revenue figures for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024 were 4.29 billion, 4.44 billion, and 4.60 billion respectively, with a 6.4% year-on-year growth in the first half of 2025 [5] - The gross profit margin has shown a steady increase, reaching 70.1% in the first half of 2025, indicating strong pricing power and cost control [5] Profitability Issues - Net profit figures from 2022 to 2024 were 147 million, 302 million, and 190 million, with a significant 37.1% decline in net profit for 2024 [6] - The first half of 2025 saw a net profit of 191 million, reflecting a 7.3% year-on-year increase, indicating a phase of recovery [7] Brand Dependency - Natural Hall heavily relies on its main brand, which accounted for 94.9% of revenue in the first half of 2025, raising concerns about concentration risk [9] - The company has five brands, but the main brand's revenue dependency is significantly higher than competitors like Proya and Shiseido, which are also working on developing new brands [9] Market Position and Competition - Natural Hall is the third-largest domestic cosmetics group in China, with a strong brand presence established over nearly 25 years [2][3] - The company faces stiff competition from Proya, which has successfully launched high-selling products and achieved over 10 billion in revenue in 2024, while Natural Hall has struggled to create similar blockbuster products [11] Channel Strategy - Natural Hall has been focusing more on offline channels, with online revenue increasing from 59.7% in 2022 to 68.8% in the first half of 2025, while offline revenue has been declining [12] - The company plans to leverage its extensive offline network, which includes over 40,000 points of sale, to enhance brand experience and service [12][13]