Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-17 06:47Core Viewpoint - Alibaba-W (09988) shares have dropped over 4%, currently at 154.4 HKD with a trading volume of 13.466 billion HKD, amid the launch of the 2025 "Double 11" e-commerce promotion focusing on instant retail [1] Group 1: E-commerce Strategy - The "Double 11" promotion has entered a critical phase, with Taobao/Tmall investing 3 billion CNY in live-streaming red envelopes, allowing users to receive up to 2000 CNY daily [1] - For the first time, Taobao Flash Sale is participating in "Double 11," offering 50% off takeout red envelopes for 88VIP members during the promotional period [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - Zheshang Securities forecasts Alibaba's China e-commerce revenue for FY26Q2 to be 126.9 billion CNY, representing a year-over-year growth of 11.6% [1] - The EBITA Margin is projected to be 6.8%, showing a significant decline due to substantial investments in instant retail during the third quarter [1] Group 3: Market Opportunities - The company aims to enhance user engagement and transaction frequency through high-frequency orders from food delivery, which will improve the fulfillment system [1] - The dual strategy of Ele.me and Gaode in the in-store business presents new growth opportunities for Alibaba's e-commerce segment [1]