鲍威尔一句话引爆市场，97%概率，10月必降息

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks at the National Association for Business Economics annual meeting significantly impacted global markets, leading to a sharp recovery in the Dow Jones index and a drop in the 2-year Treasury yield to its lowest level since September 2022, with a near certainty of interest rate cuts by the end of October [1][3]. Economic Context - Powell's statement that "there is no risk-free path for policy" reassured the market amid a challenging economic environment characterized by government shutdowns affecting data availability and a softening job market, while inflation remains above target [3][5]. - The government shutdown has delayed critical economic reports, including the September non-farm payrolls and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to make informed decisions [5][7]. Employment Market Insights - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, the highest in a year, indicating a growing difficulty for job seekers despite companies reporting challenges in finding suitable candidates [7][9]. - The non-farm payrolls data showed a disappointing increase of only 22,000 jobs in August, significantly below market expectations, with previous months' data also revised downward [9][10]. Inflation Concerns - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2.9% year-over-year, exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target, primarily driven by tariffs and potential new tariffs under the previous administration [12][13]. - There are concerns about rising service sector inflation amidst weakening job growth, placing the Federal Reserve in a difficult position [13][15]. Federal Reserve's Policy Dilemma - The Federal Reserve's internal discussions reflect a divide on the pace of interest rate cuts, with some members advocating for more aggressive action to support the job market, while others caution against rapid cuts that could reignite inflation [15][17]. - Powell hinted at the potential end of the balance sheet reduction (QT) plan, signaling a shift towards providing liquidity to the market, which was positively received by analysts and led to market reactions [17].