Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-17 08:29Core Viewpoint - China Biopharmaceutical (01177) maintains a buy rating with a target price of HKD 9.4, based on DCF analysis with a WACC of 10.01% and a perpetual growth rate of 2.0% [1] Financial Projections - Expected revenue growth rates for China Biopharmaceutical are +19.1% in 2025, +4.4% in 2026, and +10.6% in 2027 [1] - Adjusted net profit growth rates are projected at +81.3% in 2025, -30.0% in 2026, and +11.3% in 2027 [1] Clinical Results of TQC3721 - TQC3721, a PDE3/4 inhibitor, showed significant improvement in lung function and symptoms in a Phase II clinical trial involving 240 moderate to severe COPD patients [2] - After 4 weeks of treatment, the FEV1 peak values for the 3mg and 6mg groups were higher than the placebo group by 100ml and 147ml, respectively [2] - The 6mg group also demonstrated a significant FEV1 AUC (0-12h) increase of 87ml compared to the placebo group, with a SCRQ score improvement of 5.09 units [2] Comparative Analysis - TQC3721's clinical data indicates it has the potential to be a best-in-class treatment, with FEV1 peak values comparable to those of the recently approved drug Ensofen [3] - The patient baseline in TQC3721's trial was worse, as 30% had previously used LAMA and 70% used LABA/LAMA, suggesting greater clinical benefit potential for real-world COPD patients [3] Market Potential - The global COPD market is substantial, with nearly 480 million affected individuals, and over 100 million in China, making it a significant health concern [4] - The recent FDA approval of Ensofen, the first new mechanism COPD drug in over 20 years, highlights the market's potential, with sales reaching USD 0.71 million and USD 1.03 million in Q1 and Q2 2025, respectively [4] - The acquisition of Verona by Merck for USD 10 billion underscores the significant market opportunity for PDE3/4 inhibitors, positioning TQC3721 as a strong candidate for overseas licensing [4]