Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-17 08:42Core Viewpoint - Macquarie's report indicates that unless trade negotiations or geopolitical relations deteriorate, emerging markets will see capital inflows in the next six months, supported by improved liquidity in H-shares and potential consumption stimulus measures [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to receive support due to a 20% year-on-year increase in industrial profits in August, driven by anti-involution policies in upstream industries [1] - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to focus on enhancing social welfare, potentially leading to structural capital inflows into the stock market [1] - Reforms in household savings, insurance, and private pensions could add approximately 43 trillion RMB in potential investments to the stock market over the next decade, equivalent to 41% of the total market capitalization of A-shares in Q3 this year [1] Group 2: Investment Preferences - Macquarie currently prefers H-shares over A-shares due to quality rotation and IPOs attracting more investor attention to the Hong Kong stock market [1] - Despite this preference, the medium-term outlook for A-shares remains positive, as national policy reforms are expected to drive capital inflows [1] - The report favors sectors such as internet and consumer services while avoiding the energy sector and low-beta, high-dividend stocks [1] Group 3: Stock Selection - The report identifies high-beta, high-quality stocks that are relatively undervalued, including BYD (002594), Wuliangye (000858), Anta Sports (02020), and Haidilao (06862) [1]