南华期货：‌风险资产齐跌贵金属独秀 白银租赁利率飙升

Macro News - The main focus is on the recent fluctuations in gold prices, with the Shanghai gold futures reporting a price of 999.80 CNY per gram, reflecting a 3.82% increase. The opening price was 968.56 CNY per gram, with a high of 1001.00 CNY and a low of 968.56 CNY [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce expressed an open attitude towards equal consultations based on mutual respect, while the Foreign Ministry firmly opposed the U.S. linking tariff extensions to China's rare earth export controls [1] - U.S. banks reported issues related to loan fraud and bad debts, leading to a nearly 7% drop in the regional bank index and an 11% decline in Jefferies' stock [1] - There is a divergence in the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rate cuts, with some advocating for caution while others call for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut. The ongoing government shutdown is complicating data flow and consensus within the Fed [1] - The ongoing government shutdown has led to the Senate's tenth rejection of a temporary funding bill, contributing to market uncertainty [1] Institutional Perspectives - Precious metals are showing strong upward momentum, with significant changes in U.S. market indicators, including a decline in the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields, alongside a drop in U.S. stocks, Bitcoin, and oil prices [1] - The rise in silver leasing rates indicates increasing risk accumulation in the U.S. financial markets, exacerbated by concerns over the potential impacts of the government shutdown and trade tariff uncertainties [1] - The exposure of loan fraud and bad debts by two U.S. banks has triggered panic selling in the market, significantly impacting the regional bank index [1] - For investment strategies in precious metals, the long-term trend may lean towards bullish, while short-term volatility is expected to increase. Investors are advised to maintain a cautious approach or consider short-term trading strategies [2] - Specific resistance and support levels for gold and silver are identified, with gold facing resistance at 4500 and support at 4300, while silver has resistance at 55 and support at 50 [2]