百利好晚盘分析：市场押注衰退 黄金疯狂上涨

Gold Market - Investors are flocking to gold as a safe haven due to escalating tariff issues and the U.S. government shutdown, with interest rate cut expectations driving gold prices up [1] - The recent credit crisis among U.S. regional banks has rekindled fears reminiscent of the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank collapse, leading to increased market bets on credit recession [1] - Macro data indicates a weakening economic outlook, heightening recession risks, suggesting that the Federal Reserve's potential rate cut at the end of October is a response to financial system stress rather than a sign of economic soft landing [1] - Credit recession is anticipated to trigger economic downturns, potentially leading to a financial crisis, which has contributed to rising gold prices [1] - Technically, gold prices are showing strong upward momentum, with support at $4,300 and resistance at $4,420 [1] Oil Market - U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 3.524 million barrels last week, significantly exceeding market expectations of a 288,000 barrel increase, indicating weak consumption in the U.S. oil market [2] - Oil prices are expected to test year-to-date lows due to the ongoing stalemate in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the impact of tariff wars [3] - Technically, oil prices are on a downward trend, with support at $55.20 and resistance at $57.70 [3] Dollar Index - The recent failures of two U.S. regional banks have heightened market fears, leading to significant sell-offs and a continued decline in the dollar [4] - The eurozone is expected to experience a slow economic recovery, supported by loose monetary policy and gradual fiscal measures, with potential for euro appreciation [4] - Technically, the dollar index has broken below 98.50, with support at 97.70 and resistance at 98.30 [4] Nasdaq Index - The Nasdaq index is experiencing accelerated declines, with a high probability of breaking below the 24,000 mark [6] - Technically, the index is trading below the 120-day moving average, indicating a continuation of the downward trend, with support at 23,800 and resistance at 24,500 [6] Copper Market - Copper prices are consolidating within the range of $4.75 to $5.11, with a downward trend continuing [7] - Technically, the market is operating below the 60/120-day moving averages, with support at $4.77 and resistance at $4.95 [7]