指数基金波动这么大，真的能养老吗？

Core Insights - The article highlights the misconception that "stability" equates to "zero volatility," leading investors to allocate retirement funds into low-risk savings, which ultimately exposes them to hidden risks of purchasing power erosion [1] - It emphasizes the importance of achieving a long-term annualized return of at least 4%-5% to counteract inflation, despite the current low interest rate environment posing challenges [3] Group 1: Inflation and Purchasing Power - The "real inflation rate" indicator, derived from the difference between M2 money supply growth and GDP growth, reveals the reality of monetary overexpansion, with China's real inflation rate fluctuating between 0.4% and 8.7% from 2014 to 2025, with median and average values at 4.3% and 4.0% respectively [1] - Assuming a moderate inflation rate of 4%, the actual purchasing power of 1 million yuan will decrease to approximately 330,000 yuan over 30 years, indicating that relying solely on low-risk savings products will struggle to withstand this gradual erosion [1] Group 2: Asset Allocation Trends - In response to the low interest rate environment, many countries have adjusted their pension asset allocations, with the National Pension Service of Korea allocating 43.5% to equity assets and Japan's GPIF increasing its equity asset target allocation from 20% in 2006 to 50% in 2020, with over 90% of investments being passive [3] Group 3: Investment Strategies in Equity Assets - Investing in broad-based index funds can achieve long-term profitability by capitalizing on market fluctuations through buying low and selling high, as illustrated by the "smile curve" in systematic investment plans [7] - Broad-based indices represent a basket of quality listed companies, which benefit from national economic growth, ensuring that these representative industry leaders will appreciate over time [8] - Dividend income from core broad-based indices provides cash flow and compounding benefits, as stable companies tend to distribute profits as dividends, which can be reinvested to enhance overall returns [10] Group 4: Historical Performance of Indices - Historical performance data shows significant returns for various indices from 2004 to 2025, with the CSI A500 index achieving a total return of 592.97% when considering reinvested dividends [11]