业绩飙升却难掩隐忧？券商净利暴增96％，IPO十年困局能否打破

Core Viewpoint - Dongguan Securities has updated its IPO prospectus, revealing significant expected growth in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, amidst a challenging IPO environment for other brokers [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company anticipates total operating revenue for January to September 2025 to be between 2.34 billion and 2.59 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 44.93% to 60.18% [3]. - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 860 million and 950 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 77.77% to 96.48% [3]. - After excluding non-recurring gains and losses, the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between 860 million and 940 million yuan, with a growth rate of 78.26% to 97.02% [3]. Market Context - Dongguan Securities is currently the only company on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's main board awaiting IPO approval, suggesting a potential acceleration in its IPO process [2][5]. - The company’s financial performance is attributed to a bullish A-share market, with significant increases in trading volumes and investment income [3][5]. Shareholder Structure - The company has no controlling shareholder, with the Dongguan State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission indirectly controlling 75.40% of the shares through three entities [4][5]. Business Risks - The company faces uncertainties, including slow review processes by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and a high reliance on brokerage services, which may be impacted by market fluctuations and commission rate declines [5][6]. - The investment banking segment has shown a declining trend in revenue contribution, which may affect overall financial stability [6]. Industry Dynamics - The current environment for IPOs is challenging due to tightened policies and increased scrutiny, with many brokers facing issues related to compliance and profitability [7]. - The industry is shifting towards mergers and acquisitions as a means to enhance competitiveness rather than relying solely on IPOs for financing [7].